Enel, the road to 2030 in the Strategic Plan 2022-2024

Enel seeks to drive investment towards zero emissions with focus on electrification of customer energy demand

  • The Enel Group's Plan focuses on four strategic lines: 

    1. allocate capital to support the supply of decarbonized electricity;
    2. enable the electrification of customer energy demand;
    3. leverage value creation throughout the value chain;
    4. to drive Net Zero sustainability. 

  • The Group expects to mobilize total investments of 210 billion euros between 2021 and 2030of which 170 billion euros will be invested directly by the Enel Group (+6% 40 billion will be catalyzed through third parties.
  • Between 2020 and 2030, it is projected that the Group ordinary EBITDA increase at a compound annual growth rate (").CAGR") of 5%-6%. It is also projected that the group net ordinary income increase at a compound annual rate of 6%-7%.
  • The Group go to its Net Zero commitment for 10 yearsfrom 2050 to 2040emissions, both for direct and indirect emissions.
  • The value created for the Group's customers is expected to generate a reduction of up to 40% in its energy expendituretogether with a reduction of up to 80% of its CO21 by 2030.
  • By 2024, it is expected that the Group ordinary EBITDA reach €21.0-21.6 billion, compared to an estimated €18.7-19.3 billion in 2021. It is expected that the group net ordinary income increase to €6.7-6.9 billion in 2024, compared to an estimated €5.4-5.6 billion in 2021.
  • The dividend policy Enel's performance for the period remains simple, predictable and attractive. Shareholders are expected to receive a Fixed Dividend per Share (DPS) that is set to increase by 13%, reaching up to 0.43 euros per sharebetween 2021 and 2024.
  • Planned earnings growth, along with the underlying dividend yield, are expected to2The total return on investment is approximately 13%.
Financial objectives
Earnings growth 2021E  2022  2023  2024
Ordinary EBITDA (€bn) 18.7-19.3 19.0-19.6 20.0-20.6 21.0-21.6
Net revenues (€bn) 5.4-5.6 5.6-5.8 6.1-6.3 6.7-6.9
Value creation
Fixed DPS (€/share) 0.38 0.40 0.43 0.43
Implied dividend yield2 5.4% 5.7% 6.1% 6.1%

Francesco StaraceEnel's CEO and Managing Director said: "This year's Plan, with €170 billion of direct investments by 2030, is critical. Its implementation enables us to move from the previous decade of Renewable Energy Discovery to the current decade, the Decade of Electrification. We are accelerating growth across the field, bringing value to our customers, who are at the core of the Group's strategy, value that translates into a projected reduction in their energy expenditure as we increase their electricity demand by 2030. In addition, we are advancing the Group's total decarbonization target by ten years, reaching Net Zero by 2040. We will continue to grow renewables, leveraging what is already the world's leading private renewable asset base. The infrastructure and networks, as well as the recently launched Global Customers business line, will enable us to take advantage of the incredible opportunities offered by electrification. The pioneering work done by all Enel colleagues and the Group's advanced digital transformation will enable us to address evolving customer needs during this decade."

Rome, November 24, 2021 - The Enel Group (the "Group") presented its Strategic Plan 2022-2024, as well as its strategic vision towards 2030.


The 2030 Plan

The world is moving towards Net Zero and the processes of decarbonization and electrification of the global economy are key to avoiding the serious repercussions of a rise in temperatures above 1.5 °C. The most recently published scenarios agree that, to achieve ambitious climate targets, the electrification of energy uses must be accelerated along with a massive deployment of carbon-free energy. Customers will be active drivers and main beneficiaries of this process.

Over the past ten years, renewables have become mainstream in power generation, allowing decarbonization to proceed at a faster pace. Moreover, the next decade will be crucial for meeting the targets set by the Paris Agreement in 2015. Meanwhile, this period will also be characterized by increasing moves towards electrification, through which customers progressively shift their energy consumption towards electricity, improving spending, efficiency, emissions footprint and price stability.

The Group has defined its strategic actions as follows:

Allocate capital to support the supply of decarbonized electricity.
The Group expects mobilize 210 billion euros between 2021 and 2030. Of this amount, the Group expects to directly invest approximately 170 billion euros (+6% over the previous Plan) through the business models of Ownership y StewardshipThe latter also catalyzed an additional 40 billion euros through third parties.

This allocation of capital is expected to accelerate the achievement of the company's electrification and decarbonization of the Group.

By 2030, the Enel Group expects to achieve a renewable capacity total of about 154 GWto triple its 2020 portfolio, increase its network customer base at 12 million and to promote the electrification of consumption, increasing the electricity sales by almost 30% while focusing on the scaling beyond basic servicessuch as public electric mobility or behind-the-meter storage, with the support of partners.

The Group expects to invest directly about 160 billion of euros through the business model of Ownershipmainly in "Tier 1" countries3 . Specifically:

  • Nearly half (about 70 billion euros) will be dedicated to the renewable energiesThe field is expected to add some 84 GW of capacity, of which 9 GW will be in storage, which will mean 129 GW of consolidated installed renewable capacity by 2030. This is expected to be achieved by leveraging a growing portfolio of around 370 GW, more than double what was presented last year, along with three global platforms for Business Development, Engineering and Construction, as well as Operation and Maintenance;
  • An additional investment of approximately 70 billion euros at Infrastructure and Networks10 billion increase over the previous Plan, concentrated in Europe, aimed at strengthening the Group's position as a global player in terms of scale, quality, efficiency and resilience. This investment is expected to result in a Regulatory Asset Base ("RAB") of 65 billion euros by 2030, along with the complete digitization of the Group's entire network customer base through smart meters. The development of the Group's network activities will leverage the implementation of Grid Blue Skya digital platform to manage its network portfolio under a unified global model with the customer at the center of the value chain.

Under the business model of Stewardshipthe Group plans to invest approximately 10 billion euroswhile it catalyzes about 40 billion euros from third partiesThe Group is focusing on countries where generation is not integrated with customers, on new geographies or on areas where the Group can monetize its expertise to offer services to partners.

2. Enabling the electrification of customers' energy demand.
The Group's strategic actions will aim to increase customer value in the Business to Consumer segments ("...").B2C"), Business to Business ("B2B") and Business to Government ("B2G"), improving the level of electrification of these customers and the services offered.

In the "Tier 1" countries, this customized strategy, together with investments in the asset base, is expected to generate a 2.6 times increase in the Group's integrated margin between 2021 and 2030, backed by a unified platform, through which the world's largest customer transaction base among private utilities is managed.

The Group will leverage its integrated positioning in "Tier 1" countries, resulting in:

  • an increase of 80% in income versus 2021;
  • broadly flat rates for customers;
  • 40% reduction in cost of energy sold versus 2021.  

Increasing volumes of electricity sold and growth in services beyond commodities should be associated with an overall decrease in costs. Specifically, the total cost of production is expected to be reduced by approximately 50%The Group's energy sales were driven by a greater dependence on its own production, as well as by a higher share of renewable energies in the Group's generation mix.

It is expected that the value created by the Group for customers will represent a up to 40% reduction in your energy expendituretogether with a reduction of up to 80% of its CO2 by 20301.

3. Leverage value creation throughout the value chain.
In order to strengthen its customer-focused strategy through the platform, the Group is creating a Global Clients business lineThe company will be responsible for defining the commercial strategy and driving the allocation of capital towards customer needs, leveraging electrification and achieving service excellence.

The reorientation of the group will be combined with a simplification and rebalancing of its portfolio by (i) targeting "Tier 1" countries, (ii) unlocking resources by disposing of assets that are no longer core to the Group's strategy, and (iii) M&A deals to improve positioning, acquire expertise or generate synergies.

4. Promoting Net Zero sustainability
The Group's strategy and its projected positioning for 2030 enable it to bringing forward its Net Zero commitment by 10 years, from 2050 to 2040 for both direct and indirect emissions, without resorting to offsetting measuressuch as carbon removal technology or nature-based solutions. The Group plans to abandon coal-fired generation by 2027 and gas-fired generation by 2040replacing its thermal fleet with new renewable capacity and taking advantage of the hybridization of renewable energies with storage solutions. In addition, all electricity sold by the Group by 2040 is expected to come from renewable sources and, for the same year, the Group deactivates its gas retail business.



The 2022-2024 Strategic Plan

Over the next three years, the Group will position itself within the objectives set to be achieved by 2030. In particular, medium- and long-term strategies are fully aligned with the following strategic actions:

Allocate capital to support the supply of decarbonized electricity.
The Group plans to directly invest a total of around €45 billion over the 2022-2024 period, representing an increase of 12% compared to the previous Plan, while catalyzing around €8 billion from third parties through the Stewardship business model.

During 2022-2024, the Group plans to invest around 43 billion euros under the business model of Ownershipwith an alignment of the 94% with the Sustainable Development Goals (ODS) and an alignment of more than 85% with the UN's EU taxonomy criteria.

During this same period, the Group also plans to invest around 2 billion under the model of Stewardship through capital injections and acquisitions of minority shareholdings, catalyzing around 8 billion euros of third party investments.

Of the group's total ownership and management capital expenditure for 2022-2024:

  • It is expected that approximately 19 billion euros at Renewable energiesespecially in countries where the Group leverages an integrated business chain with end customers. The Group's total renewable capacity is expected to grow to 77 GW from an estimated 54 GW by the end of 2021. As a result, emission-free production will reach 77% in 2024 and CO2 emissions will decrease by more than 35% compared to 2021, putting the Group on track towards its Net Zero targets;

  • It is expected that approximately 18 billion euros a Infrastructure and Networks12% more than the previous Plan, thanks to higher investments in Europe that are also expected to take advantage of the opportunities provided by the National Recovery and Resilience Plans launched within the EU. Driven by these investments, which aim to further improve the quality and resilience of the grid, the RAB Group is expected to reach €49 billion, a growth of almost 15% by 2021.

2. Enabling the electrification of customers' energy demand.
Based on the Group's new customer model, the integrated margin is expected to increase 1.6 times by 2024 compared to 2021. Over the next three years, customer revenues are expected to grow by 26% and electricity sales are projected to grow by 25%. This will be accompanied by a decrease in total cost of energy sold of about 15% compared to 2021, also driven by a reduction of about 23% in the average cost of energy production.

3. Leverage value creation throughout the value chain.
Active management of the asset base will be used to complete the Enel Group's simplification process and unlock resources to be deployed to take advantage of new growth opportunities. This is expected to result in an accrual of benefits of 300 million under the scheme.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

A Group level, it is expected that Ordinary EBITDA will be to grow by 12% from an estimated range of €18.7 to 19.3 billion in 2021 to a range between 21.0 and 21.6 billion euros in 2024.

The Group's Ordinary EBITDA growth is determined as follows:

  1. The growth of renewable energies is the main driver for the period and is expected to contribute around EUR 2 billion; similarly, the evolution of the generation park is expected to result in a 50% growth in EBITDA of Enel Green Power4 5.8 billion estimated in 2021, i.e., from an estimated 8.7 billion euros in 2024;
  2. It is expected that the EBITDA from customers increased by 36% during the Plan period, reaching 4.9 billion euros by 20243.6 billion estimated in 2021. This growth is driven by the Group's efforts in an integrated commercial and capacity strategy, volume capture in the free market segment and incremental needs for additional services;
  3. It is expected that the EBITDA of Infrastructures and Networks increases by 16%reaching 8.7 billion euros in 20247.5 billion estimated in 2021. The main drivers are the increase in RAB, driven by higher investments, efficiency programs, tariff increases due to inflation indexation, mainly in Latin America, and higher volumes of distributed energy.

It is expected that the Ordinary Net Income increase by more than 20% from a range of 5.4-5.6 billion euros estimated in 2021 to a range between 6.7-6.9 billion euros by 2024 thanks to the operating dynamics described above and the ongoing optimization of the Group's financial management. This optimization will be carried out mainly through an increase in the Group's sources of sustainable financingwhich are expected to represent about 65% of total gross debt in 2024which translates into a cost of gross debt that is would reduce to 2.9% in 2024, compared to the 3.5% estimated at the end of 2021.

Financial leverage is expected to remain stable, with a Group Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.9 times over the Plan period, and Group Net Debt rising from an estimated €53-54 billion in 2021 to €61-62 billion in 2024.

SHAREHOLDER VALUE CREATION

The dividend policy Enel's performance for the period remains simple, predictable and attractive. Shareholders are expected to receive a fixed Dividend Per Share ("DPS") that would increase by 13%, rising to 0.43 euros per sharebetween 2021 and 2024.

Planned earnings growth, along with the underlying dividend yield, are expected to2The total yield is about 13%.

KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

This press release uses a number of "alternative performance indicators" not provided for by IFRS-EU accounting standards as adopted by the European Union, but which management believes may facilitate the assessment and monitoring of the Group's financial performance and position. In accordance with CONSOB Communication no. 0092543 of December 3, 2015 and with the Guidelines issued on October 5, 2015 by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) pursuant to Regulation no. 1095/2010 / EU, the meaning, content and calculation basis of these indicators are shown below:

  • The EBITDA is an indicator of operating performance and is calculated by adding "EBIT" to "Depreciation, amortization and impairment losses";
  • The Ordinary EBITDA is defined as "EBITDA" attributable solely to ordinary operations, linked to the Ownership and Stewardship business models. Excludes costs associated with corporate restructuring plans and costs directly related to the COVID-19 outbreak;
  • The net financial debt represents an indicator of the financial structure and is determined by:
      • "Long-term loans", "Short-term loans" and "Current portion of long-term loans", taking into account "Short-term financial debts" included in "Other current liabilities";
      • net of "Cash and cash equivalents";
      • net of "Current portion of long-term financial accounts receivable", "Current securities" and "Other financial accounts receivable" included in "Other current financial assets";
      • net of "Non-current securities" and "Other non-current financial receivables" included in "Other non-current financial assets".
      • The Enel Group's net financial debt is determined in accordance with the provisions of Guideline No. 39, issued on March 4, 2021, by ESMA, applicable as of May 5, 2021, and in line with the corresponding Warning Notice No. 5/21 issued by CONSOB on April 29, 2021. It should be noted that references to CESR recommendations contained in previous CONSOB communications should be understood as superseded by the above-mentioned ESMA guidance, including references in Communication No. DEM/6064293 of July 28, 2006, relating to the net financial position;

  • Ordinary net income of the group: defined as the portion of "Group net income" attributable solely to ordinary operations linked to the Ownership and Stewardship business models. It is equal to "Group net income" adjusted mainly for the items previously mentioned under the heading "Ordinary EBITDA", net of possible tax effects and non-controlling interests.
  1. Reduction of energy expenditure and CO2 footprint calculated against 2020, based on Enel's customer portfolio in Italy and Spain.
  2. Calculated on the basis of an Enel share price of 7 euros.
  3. Countries in which the Enel Group has an integrated or potentially integrated presence, namely Italy, Spain, Romania, United States, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru.
  4.  Including conventional generation.

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